作者 Mario Margiocco 2010年8月17日 Project Syndicate
MILAN – Italians and other Europeans have serious problems addressing their own national debts, public and private, so it may seem immodest for a European to discuss America’s growing and grave debt problem. But the fiscal realities on both sides of the Atlantic nowadays are very similar, and only lingering trust in the promise of America keeps alive the expectation among some Europeans that some grand American coup de théâtrewill resolve the country’s dire debt situation（在许多欧洲人看来，只能寄望于美国能够做出某些惊世之举，戏剧性地解决自身的债务问题了）。
Of course, many Americans recognize the scale of the country’s debt burden. Admiral Mike Mullen, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and thus America’s highest ranking military officer, recently said, “The greatest danger to American security comes from the national debt.” Four Americans out of ten agree with him, whereas less than three in ten deem terrorism or Iran more dangerous.
America’s Great Power status has always been tied to its level of debt. Indeed, it was the absence of debt （零负债）that marked the United States’ emergence as a world power between 1914 and 1917. The US went from owing $3 billion (mostly to Great Britain) to being a net creditor for about the same amount, thanks to $6 billion in war credits given to the Western Allies. A further $3 billion in credits for European post-war reconstruction cemented America’s status as the world’s premier creditor nation, with its surplus equal to roughly 8% of GNP at the time.
This shift meant that the US had essentially replaced Britain as the heart of the world’s financial and monetary system. Previously, thanks to the gold standard and Britain’s political stability, the City of London had been the world’s key source of capital and financial guarantees for more than a century.
The new era began suddenly in January 1915, when, after a few months of deep uncertainty, gold started to be shipped to New York in increasing quantities. A few months earlier, the veteran Boston financier Henry Lee Higginson had sketched in a letter to President Woodrow Wilson what America’s new strategy should be. “This is our chance to take first place,” he wrote. America’s financial house had to be put in order, all debts repaid, and, as London had done for a long time, confidence had to be maintained, which meant guaranteeing the dollar’s convertibility into gold.
Alone among the world’s great nations, the US did manage to guarantee dollar convertibility throughout the Great War. With peace, the dollar and Wall Street became the dominant force on the world’s financial landscape. The financial-market rules established after 1933 by President Franklin Roosevelt’s New Deal enabled the dollar to replace the British pound at the center of the international system.
America’s role as the world’s banker went unchallenged for the next 40 years ago, until President Richard Nixon decoupled the dollar from gold. Yet, even without the gold standard, America’s economic might, together with the recycling of petrodollars, kept the dollar on top.
Indeed, the US remained the world’s premier creditor nation until 1986-1987, when it became a debtor nation again. In the two decades that followed, America’s debt usually was around $3 trillion, rising or falling with the exchange rate of the dollar.
Starting in 1990, the US began to import more and more capital, particularly from Asia. In the 2000’s, China became the prime source of debt financing, and Americans were happy, because it enabled the US Federal Reserve to keep interest rates low.
There were some who foresaw danger. The Swedish economist Axel Leijonhufvud foresaw asset-price inflation – houses in particular – and a worsening of credit quality. Financial innovation soon made that prediction come true. It is enough to remember that in 2008 there were only 12 public companies in the world with AAA credit ratings, but more than 60,000 – mostly American – triple-A structured financial products. The US, the world’s banker, had mutated into the world’s hedge fund.
With that change, the banker’s traditional imperative to maintain fidelity and trust – to “keep faith,” as Higginson put it – was forgotten. And it is in America’s public debt that the debris of its financial system’s broken promises are collected, just as Italy’s massive public debt reflects its past national prodigality.
The figures for the US are staggering. Public debt includes not only the federal government’s current $13.2 trillion, but another $3 trillion owed by America’s states, counties, and cities. In addition, there is the $3.9 trillion in debt owed by America’s government-backed housing-finance agencies (Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and others), which currently underwrite more than 90% of all US mortgages. As a result, America’s public debt has reached roughly 140% of GDP.
The US Congress is well aware of what these numbers portend, but its members have chosen to avert their eyes. Indeed, the president is no longer required to provide the usual five-year forecast of the country’s fiscal position. A one-year perspective is now deemed sufficient.
So, where does that leave the world economy? There is no newly emerging Great Power that can assume responsibility for global finance, as there was in 1914. Back then, Wall Street was ready for the job. Someday, Shanghai and Hong Kong might be ready, but that possibility is of little help now.
Mario Margiocco’s most recent book is "Il disastro americano. Riuscirà Obama a cambiare Wall Street e Washington?" (The American Disaster: Will Obama Change Wall Street and Washington?)
债务以及美国的衰落
意大利以及其他欧洲国家都在处理本国公、私债务方面面临着严重问题，因此，让身为一个欧洲人的我来谈论美国不断加剧的债务问题似乎有点不太厚道。但如今大西洋两岸的财政困境其实异常相似，摇摇欲坠，在许多欧洲人看来，只能寄望于美国能够做出某些惊世之举，戏剧性地解决自身的债务问题了。
毫无疑问，许多美国人都意识到自己的国家已经债台高筑。美国参谋长联席会议主席（也就是美军官阶最高的人物）迈克尔·马伦上将最近就放言称：“美国最大的安全威胁就是国家负债。”而10个美国人里大概有5个会同意他的说法，只有不到3个认为恐怖主义或伊朗才是头号敌人。
美国的世界霸主地位其实一直都跟它的债务水平密切相关。事实上，正是1914~1917年间零负债的状况确立了美国的崛起。在向西方盟友发放了60亿美元战争贷款之后，当时的美国由欠债30亿美元（大部分欠英国）的穷亲戚摇身一变成为手握30亿美元净债权的大财主。随后支持欧洲重建的30亿美元贷款进一步巩固了美国世界第一大债权人的地位，而当时美国的债权额几乎相当于其国民生产总值的8%。
这一转变意味着美国已经取代英国成为世界金融和货币体系的核心。在此之前，在金本位和国内稳定政治局面的双重支撑下，伦敦市已经在超过100年的时间内担任着世界资本和金融担保的核心角色。
这个新时代是在1915年1月突然开启的，当时局势动荡已经持续了数月，然后越来越多的黄金开始被运往纽约。而就在几个月之前，波士顿金融界大佬亨利·李·希金森就已经在一封给总统伍德罗·威尔逊的信中勾勒出了美国的新战略。“我们抢占世界第一的机会来了。”他在信中这样写道。所有美国金融机构必须按规矩行事，还要还清所有债务，此外，正如伦敦长期以来一直在做的那样，必须维持市场的信心，这就意味着必须保证美元能和黄金自由兑换。
在一战期间，美国是列强中惟一一个能保证其货币和黄金之间自由兑换的国家。而在和平到来之时，美元和华尔街也就一跃成为世界金融版图中的霸主。在1993年后由美国总统富兰克林·罗斯福的“新政”所确立的金融市场管理规则，则令美元得以取代英镑成为国际金融系统的核心。
在随后40年间，没有人能挑战美国作为世界银行家的地位，直到理查德·尼克松将美元与黄金脱钩之后。但即便没有了金本位制度，美国的经济实力（加上对石油美元的再循环利用）依然将美元维持在世界之巅。
事实上，美国在1986~1987年财政年度之前依然是世界第一大债权国，但随后就变成了债务国。在接着的20年间，美国的债务总额通常维持在3万亿美元左右，并随着美元汇率的升跌而增减变化。
然而从1990年开始，美国开始引入越来越多的资本，其中大多数来自亚洲。21世纪到来之后中国成为美国债务融资的最大来源国，而美国人也乐此不疲——因为这令美联储得以维持一个较低的利率。
不过有些人却从中看到了危机。瑞典经济学家阿克谢尔·莱永胡夫预见了资产价格膨胀——尤其是在房地产方面——以及信贷质量的进一步恶化。很快金融创新就让这些预言变成了现实。2008年是值得铭记的一年，当年只有区区12家上市公司能获得AAA级信用评级，却有超过6000个（大多数来自美国）被评定为AAA级的结构性金融产品。而美国这个世界银行家也蜕变成为了一个世界级的对冲基金。
在这些转变的影响之下，银行家传统的忠诚和信誉——“守信”——被抛到了九霄云外。如今美国金融系统那些无法兑现的承诺通通都集中到了国家的公共债务之上，正如意大利的庞大政府债务体现了其过去的挥霍无度那样。
美国的债务总额令人震惊。其公共债务不仅包含了联邦政府的13.2万亿美元债务，还包含了由国内各州以及各县市所欠下的3万亿美元，此外还要加上那些有美国政府背景的房屋信贷机构（房地美、房利美等）的3.9万亿美元欠款——这些机构目前承担了全美超过90%的抵押贷款。把上述数字都加在一起之后，美国的公共债务总额几乎等于其 GDP的140%。
虽然美国国会很清楚这些数字究竟在警告着什么，但那些议员们却选择睁一只眼闭一只眼。事实上，议会也不再要求总统提供对未来5年财政状况的常规预测，只需提交未来一年的展望就可以了。
那么世界经济究竟该往何处去？至今还没有一个新崛起的世界强权能像1914年的美国那样承担起全球财政的重任。当时的华尔街已经蓄势待发。而在未来的某些时候，上海和香港可能会成为接班人，但这种可能性对当今的状况来说，只能是杯水车薪。
（作者为意大利著名记者。翻译：邹痴成。Copyright:Project Syndicate,2010.）
