作者： , 2013 年 2 月21 日 华盛顿邮报
China has a “deeply ingrained” need to spar with Japan and other Asian neighbors over territory, because the ruling Communist Party uses the disputes to maintain strong domestic support, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said in an interview.
Clashes with neighbors, notably Japan, play to popular opinion, Abe said, given a Chinese education system that emphasizes patriotism and “anti-Japanese sentiment.”
Abe’s theory on the entrenched motivation behind China’s recent naval aggression helps explain why he has spent more effort trying to counter the Chinese than make peace with them: He thinks the fierce dispute with China over an island chain in the East China Sea isn’t going away anytime soon.
Abe spoke about China in what aides described as unusually detailed terms, laying out challenges that Chinese leaders might face if other Asian countries, unnerved by Beijing’s maritime expansionism, decide to reduce trade and other economic ties. China’s government would be hurt by such moves, Abe said, because without economic growth, it “will not be able to control the 1.3 billion people . . . under the one-party rule.”
Abe also laid out his plans for deterrence, which include boosting military spending and strengthening ties with Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia and other nations that share concerns about Beijing. Abe, who is to meet Friday with President Obama in Washington, said the U.S. presence in Asia is “critical” to deter China from taking territory controlled by other countries.
His comments came in an interview Saturday with The Washington Post, which The Post was granted on the condition that the article not be published until Abe was departing for Washington.
In recent years, China has played anincreasingly boisterous role in the South China Sea, claiming a massive sphere of territory that includes some of the world’s most trafficked shipping lanes and overlaps with claims of a half-dozen other countries. For Japan, the dispute with China focuses on a chain of remote islands in the East China Sea known to Japanese as the Senkaku and to Chinese as the Diaoyu, several of which Japan’s central government purchased in September after previously renting.
“What is important first and foremost,” Abe said, “is to make [China] realize that they would not be able to change the rules or take away somebody’s territorial water or territory by coercion or intimidation.”
Abe’s assessment of China sounds like a version of the one that experts in Beijing give of Japan, which they say has shifted to the right on foreign policy and security issues in a bid to recover clout and pride lost during two decades of economic stagnation. Abe’s criticism of Chinese education is also notable because, during his first stint as prime minister six years ago, he revised a law to encourage a more patriotic curriculum in Japan’s classrooms.
Pragmatic and popular
Abe became prime minister for a second time in December, after making a string of far-right campaign pledges to revise Japan’s pacifist constitution and loosen certain restrictions on the armed forces. He also promised to be tougher on China than the previous government, the deeply unpopular and moderate Democratic Party of Japan, which was booted from office.
But two months into his term, Abe looks more like a pragmatist than a strident nationalist, focusing mainly on a new, and so far successful, economic policy to weaken the yen and spur inflation. His latest popularity rating is 71 percent, according to the Yomiuri newspaper, a stunning mark in a nation that has cycled through six consecutive one-year leaders.
“I have succeeded already in changing the general mood and atmosphere that was prevalent in Japan,” Abe said.
The question is whether Abe will change course and begin pushing for his controversial right-wing hobbyhorses after July parliamentary elections that could help his Liberal Democratic Party build an overwhelming majority and leave Abe emboldened. One concern is that Abe could revise earlier government apologies for atrocities committed by Japan’s World War II-era military. Abe, in the interview, said he would someday like to make a “future-oriented” statement aimed at Japan’s neighbors, but he did not elaborate on what its message would be.
Beijing has responded to Japan’s nationalization of the Senkaku Islands by sending surveillance ships and aircraft into Japanese territory, drawing Japan into a risky showdown in which the neighbors chase each other around the waters and airspace of uninhabited rocky outcroppings. Any armed conflict could draw in the United States, which is treaty-bound to protect Japan.
The 35-year shift
While historical animosities are at the root of Japan’s territorial dispute with China, the maritime conflict is relatively new. During the interview, Abe portrayed China’s actions as part of a 35-year shift that began when the Communist Party opened its once-controlled economy. China’s government has since had to abandon the hope of nationwide economic equality — “one of its pillars of legitimacy,” Abe said — forcing it to create “some different pillars,” including rapid economic growth and patriotism.
“What is unfortunate, however,” Abe added, “is that in the case of China, teaching patriotism [is equivalent to] teaching anti-Japanese sentiment. In other words, their education policy of teaching patriotism has become even more pronounced as they started the reform and opening policy.”
Abe said China’s tactics at sea are yielding “strong support” domestically. Those tactics, some analysts say, also could prove financially lucrative if China gains control of shipping lanes and access to rich fishing territory, and extracts hydrocarbon reserves.
But Abe warned that China’s sparring with its neighbors could backfire, potentially undermining trade partnerships and causing skittishness among foreign investors.
“Such behavior is going to have an effect on their economic activity at the end of the day,” he said, “because it will lead to losing the confidence of the international community, which will result in less investments in China. I believe it is fully possible to have China to change their policy once they gain that recognition.”
新华国际：安倍诬中国对冲突需求”根深蒂固“
【美国《华盛顿邮报》网站2月21日报道】题：日本首相安倍称中国对冲突的需求是“根深蒂固的”（记者奇科·哈伦）
日本首相安倍晋三在接受采访时称，中国对与日本及其他亚洲邻国就领土问题不断争执的需求是“根深蒂固的”，因为执政的共产党要利用领土争端争取国内强有力的支持。
安倍说，鉴于中国强调爱国主义和“反日情感”的教育，与邻国——尤其是日本——发生争执是可以迎合舆论的。
安倍的这种理论有助于解释为何他选择在岛争问题上给予强硬回击。他认为，日本就东中国海的一些岛屿与中国的争端不会马上消失。
他的一些助手称，安倍有关中国的这番言论具体得超乎寻常了。他列举了中国领导人可能面对的一些挑战，如果对北京的海上扩张感到不安的其他亚洲国家决定降低与中国的贸易和其他经济关系的话。
安倍还制订了威慑计划，其中包括增加军费开支、加强与泰国、越南、印度尼西亚等国的关系，因为这些国家都对北京感到不安。将于本周五在华盛顿会见奥巴马总统的安倍还说，美国在亚洲的存在对于租止中国夺取其他国家控制的领土来说是“至关重要。的”。
安倍是在16日接受《华盛顿邮报》采访时说这番话的。
他说：“最最重要的是要(中国)认识到，他们不能通过强硬或恐吓手段来改变规则，或夺取他人的领海和领土。”
安倍把中国最近的举动描绘成始于35年前的变化的一部分，当时中国共产党开放了其一度受到控制的经济。安倍说，此后，中国政府放弃了在全国范围内实现经济平等——“维持其合法性的支柱之一”——的希望。它因此被迫构筑“其他不同的支柱”，包括迅速的经济增长和爱国主义等。
安倍说： “然而，不幸的是，就中国而言，进行爱国主义教育等同于进行反日教育。”
安倍警告说，中国不断与其邻国争吵可能会带来事与愿违的结果，可能损害它们之间的贸易伙伴关系，可能甚会在外国投资商中造成恐慌。
新华国际：《华盛顿邮报》回应日方警告，「准确诠释安倍言论」
针对日本外务省2月22日对《华盛顿邮报》“不实报导”的警告，其国际编辑耶赫尔当天回应称，该报准确引述了日本首相安倍晋三的表态，也准确地诠释了安倍“中国需要冲突”的言论。
日本首相安倍晋三21日抵达华盛顿访问，而在其出发前《华盛顿邮报》刊登一篇题为“日本首相安倍说：中国对冲突的需求根深蒂固”的专访，引起轩然大波。日本外务省表示《华盛顿邮报》报道不正确，并引发了误解。
针对中国媒体的质疑，《华盛顿邮报》国际编辑耶赫尔22日以电邮的形式回应说，该报准确引述了日本首相安倍晋三言论，报道准确地诠释了安倍晋三的言论。完整的采访内容已经在网上发布。
在《华盛顿邮报》发布的5页采访内容中，安倍晋三在回答记者采访时表示，中国领导人应该意识到“中国爱国主义教育导致反日情绪”的问题是根深蒂固存在的。 该报专访报道标题为“日本首相安倍晋三说中国对冲突的需求根深蒂固”。
